California voters will decide this November whether to make permanent income tax increase on high-income earners that has been part of the state tax system since 2012.

Proposition 3 would extend the existing higher income-tax rates beyond their scheduled 2031 expiration. The rates apply to individuals earning more than roughly $371,000 annually, with the threshold adjusted each year for inflation.

The measure would not create a new tax bracket. Instead, it would remove the expiration date from rates voters previously approved on high incomes. According to the California Legislative Analyst’s Office, making those rates permanent would maintain an estimated $5 billion to $15 billion in annual state revenue that otherwise would eventually disappear after 2031.

Under the measure, revenue tied to the tax would continue to support public education. The official ballot summary says the additional General Fund revenue also affects the amount of money available for health care, budget reserves and other state programs.

For Irvine residents, the measure has both statewide and local implications. Irvine is served by public school systems including Irvine Unified School District and lies in a region with comparatively high household incomes and housing costs. The proposition does not impose a separate Irvine tax, but some higher-income residents could remain subject to the affected state tax rates after 2031 if the measure passes.

California’s reliance on personal income taxes also makes the question significant for the state budget. Revenue from high-income taxpayers can fluctuate substantially because those taxpayers often receive income from capital gains, business activity and investments. Proposition 3 would preserve the tax rates themselves, but it would not guarantee that the amount collected would remain the same from year to year.

What voters should watch

• The central question is whether tax rates that are already in place should become permanent rather than expire in 2031.
• The measure applies only above specified high-income thresholds, which are adjusted for inflation.
• The Legislative Analyst’s Office estimates the change would maintain roughly $5 billion to $15 billion in annual state revenue, but collections could vary with the economy and the incomes of affected taxpayers.
• For Irvine, the most visible connection is likely to be through statewide education and health-care funding rather than a new city-level program.

What happens next?

If Proposition 3 passes, the existing higher rates on high incomes would continue without the current 2031 expiration. If it fails, the rates would remain in effect for now and expire as scheduled in 2031.